Analysis of calls to police in L.A., Indianapolis also shows traffic stops and burglaries declining
George E. Tita, professor of criminology, law and society and urban planning and public policy, and researchers at UCLA have found an increase in the incidence of domestic violence reports in two cities, Los Angeles and Indianapolis, since stay-at-home restrictions were implemented in March in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The scholars predict that the incidence should gradually decrease as people return to normal routines, but would likely increase again if there is a second wave of COVID-19 infections that prompts new stay-at-home orders.
Their study is published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Criminal Justice.
From the study's abstract:
Crimes such as domestic violence may increase because of extended periods of contact between potential offenders and victims. Understanding the impact of social distancing on crime is critical for ensuring the safety of police and government capacity to deal with the evolving crisis. Understanding how social distancing policies impact crime may also provide insights into whether people are complying with public health measures. Examination of the most recently available data from both Los Angeles, CA, and Indianapolis, IN, shows that social distancing has had a statistically significant impact on a few specific crime types. However, the overall effect is notably less than might be expected given the scale of the disruption to social and economic life.
The researchers analyzed police calls for service before and during the coronavirus pandemic — from Jan. 2 to April 18 in Los Angeles, and from Jan. 2 to April 21 in Indianapolis. Los Angeles implemented “safer-at-home” rules on March 20, and Indianapolis enacted similar orders on March 24. School, restaurant and bar closures were ordered in both cities on March 16.
The researchers also analyzed reported crime statistics — different sets of figures reflecting that police investigations into alleged crime have occurred — through April 10 in Los Angeles and April 18 in Indianapolis.
Both cities saw a statistically significant increase in domestic violence calls for service after stay-at-home policies, the researchers report. If stay-at-home rules are reinstated, the researchers expect the number of calls for service to remain high as long as these rules are in place.
By comparison, the numbers of reported robberies have decreased significantly in Los Angeles, and stayed relatively consistent in Indianapolis. Burglaries have decreased significantly in Los Angeles and slightly in Indianapolis. Vehicle thefts were moderately higher in Los Angeles, but unchanged in Indianapolis. Traffic stops were significantly down in both cities.
The researchers write that physical distancing measures are likely to significantly alter and disrupt the conditions under which crime typically occurs. Crime patterns, they note, may provide valuable insights into whether individuals and communities are complying with critical public health measures.
"The implications are important for the allocation of policing resources," Tita says. "It's always better to have a true picture of crime so police can better allocate their resources and so advocacy groups and victim support agencies can provide their services."
As for domestic violence once stay-at-home orders are lifted, Tita says, "it's possible we may see an increase in reports simply because victims may be in a position to leave their abusers, escape their situation and report the crime."
The study’s authors are Jeffrey Brantingham, UCLA professor of anthropology; Andrea Bertozzi, UCLA professor of mathematics and director of applied mathematics; George Mohler, associate professor of computer and information science at Purdue University; and Martin B. Short, associate professor of mathematics at Georgia Tech.
The research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Simons Foundation.