Professor Charis Kubrin leads research addressing policy alternatives for California
The University of California, Irvine today released its “Future of Public Safety Report on Policies and Future Scenarios,” made possible by a grant from the California 100 Initiative, an ambitious statewide initiative to envision and shape the long-term success of the state. For several months, the research team led by Charis Kubrin, professor of criminology, law and society, examined where California has been, where it’s at and where it’s headed in terms of possible scenarios and policy alternatives for the future.
“When it comes to criminal justice reform, California is at a crossroads,” said Charis Kubrin. The research, conducted by Kubrin and Bradley Bartos, who earned his Ph.D. in criminology, law and society at UCI in 2020 and now is an assistant professor at the University of Arizona, considers several possible paths that the state could take, which vary along two important dimensions, she said. The first — “Economic and Organizational Pressures” — considers fiscal constraints and the ability to introduce new public expenditures, while the second — “Perceptions of Crime” — reflects the extent to which the public (rightly or wrongly) fears crime and how elected officials politicize crime and criminal justice policy.
Kubrin and Bartos identify four possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Doing Better with Less
Amid economic uncertainty and a new wave of centrist political support, corrections budgets come under fire from all sides. A coalition forms around reducing the size, scope, and cost of California’s criminal justice system — furthering the aims of post-Brown v. Plata reform efforts — but political stakeholders must navigate how to achieve these goals without threatening public safety or increasing costs. As a result, California enacts reforms aiming to (a) eliminate harsh sentencing structures established during the 1980s and 90s, (b) narrow the range of offenses that qualify for incarceration through reclassification and decriminalization, (c) reduce the range of technical violations that meet the criteria for reincarceration for those under parole and post-release community supervision, and (d) utilize advancements in risk assessment accuracy to minimize the number of people incarcerated that appear unlikely to reoffend upon release.
Scenario 2: Reimagining Corrections
A coalition forms around reducing the root causes of crime and reforming — or even abolishing — incarceration to minimize its criminogenic effects. In the more conservative scenario, California pursues reforms that incrementally build upon post-Brown v. Plata policies but that also seek to minimize racial and ethnic bias. New policies that identify the next set of low-risk offenders are supplemented with additional policies that aim to minimize recidivism. A central goal of these policies is to address the root causes of crime. In the more radical scenario, California pursues a transformative reimagining of criminal justice administration that more closely aligns with calls for abolition. At the root of this is a wholesale restructuring of America’s social, political, and economic systems, where a redistribution of wealth helps to offset inequality in society.
Scenario 3: Tough on Crime, But on a Budget
Rising fear of crime combines with budget constraints, forcing politicians and criminal justice stakeholders to do more to reduce crime, but at a lower cost. To achieve these goals, conventional cost-cutting tactics are employed, such as privatization and eliminating the need for correctional workers through technology. The use of prisons, which contain a range of services and programs essential for those incarcerated long-term, is scaled down dramatically. The in-custody population remains stable, however, through a corresponding increase in the use of jail and alternatives to incarceration, such as home monitoring. The state reserves its costly prison facilities, as well as jails, for serious offenders, opting to rely on alternatives to incarceration to oversee its burgeoning correctional population. Chief among these is the expanded use of, and innovation in, supervision technology. Coupled with an expanded surveillance network are new policies related to fines and fees associated with all stages of the criminal justice system, creating additional revenue streams to fund the innovation and expansion of technology.
Scenario 4: Mass Incarceration Redux
Amid economic uncertainty and a new wave of centrist political support, corrections budgets come under fire from all sides. A coalition forms around reducing the size, scope, and cost of California’s criminal justice system — furthering the aims of post-Brown v. Plata reform efforts — but political stakeholders must navigate how to achieve these goals without threatening public safety or increasing costs. As a result, California enacts reforms aiming to (a) eliminate harsh sentencing structures established during the 1980s and 90s, (b) narrow the range of offenses that qualify for incarceration through reclassification and decriminalization, (c) reduce the range of technical violations that meet the criteria for reincarceration for those under parole and post-release community supervision, and (d) utilize advancements in risk assessment accuracy to minimize the number of people incarcerated that appear unlikely to reoffend upon release.
“After months of diligent research by our partners across the state, we are excited to share their findings with the public to kickstart a conversation about the policy options we can take to create an inclusive, equitable and sustainable California,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, executive director of California 100. “Our research partners engaged a diverse group of stakeholders in their work and it will take all of them and all of us to take this work and make it actionable today — to influence tomorrow.”
Along with Kubrin’s report, California 100 today also released two other policy and scenario reports focusing on the future of health and wellness and immigrant integration in the golden state.
Last summer, California 100 announced grants to 18 centers and institutes across California to examine future scenarios with the potential to shape California’s leadership in the coming century, with a focus on 13 priority research areas. In March, California 100 released its first four policy and scenario reports focused on the future of advanced technology, energy, housing, and transportation.
The research reports were produced as part of California 100’s research stream of work led by Henry E. Brady, director of research for California 100. The research will later be tested through deliberative polling exercises and engagement sessions directly with Californians in the summer of 2022 and into 2023 to inform a vision and policy strategy for the state’s future.
Kubrin will be a featured speaker today discussing her report online. The webinar begins at 5:30 p.m. Register to watch.
The goal of California 100 is to lift up and support transformative ideas, people and projects that accelerate progress with a focus on inspiring a vision and strategy for California’s next century that is innovative, sustainable, and equitable. In addition to sponsoring original work, the California 100 Platform will promote the best of what is happening in the state. Through these various projects and activities, California 100 seeks to move California toward an aspirational vision — changing policies and practices, attitudes and mindsets, for a more vibrant future.
In total, California 100 is releasing 15 issue and future scenarios reports this year.
Related:
Evaluating criminal justice reform in California’s future
Contact:
Mimi Ko Cruz
Director of Communciations
949-824-1278